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Brian Scheid spoke this week at the Platts Global Crude Oil Summit in London and gave some insight into one of the biggest variables around US oil: the next president. Let’s call it the 1 million b/d race, even if such speculation may ultimately prove wildly wrong. In short: no one can accurately forecast the impact of the outcome of this November’s US presidential race. This is partly because neither Hillary Clinton, the Democrat’s likely candidate for the White House, nor Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, have laid out the specifics of their energy policy hopes. Nor is it clear how many of these policies may bear fruit. More importantly, the race for the White House and its subsequent effect on global crude oil market fundamentals will not happen in a vacuum. A coordinated supply cut by OPEC, a collapse of Venezuela’s economy, even a pronounced return of Libyan oil to the world market will likely impact fundamentals deeper than whatever happens in November’s election. In addition, if oil prices sink below $30/b again or return to levels above $70/b, the new White House tenant’s influence on crude supply and demand may ultimately be inconsequential. There are so many variables that the US Energy Information Administration, which forecasts everything from where Brent spot prices will be trading next year to how much a single Eagle Ford rig may produce next month, does not forecast the impact of election outcomes on oil, or any other energy markets. Several analysts cautioned that trying to predict the market impact of the likely race between Clinton and Trump was a fool’s errand at best and pretty much impossible. But they did offer a best case/worst case view that a Clinton win would broadly decline production, by as much as 500,000 b/d, and a Trump win could boost production by as much as 500,000 b/d. So, the election could have a 1 million b/d swing, even if such a prediction is informed speculation, or, as some might more accurately put it: a guess. That being said, this presidential race is shaping up to have a major impact on the direction of US and, possibly, global oil supply and may have the most significant impact on oil policy of an election in American history. This is partly due to the increasing move away from middle ground in American politics which has clearly been accelerated amid the presidential primary races. This has caused candidates who may have a more nuanced view on energy po...